Last updated on September 9th, 2023 at 05:15 pm
In “The Coming Wave” by Mustafa Suleyman, the co-founder of DeepMind, readers are urged to consider the potential dangers of artificial intelligence (AI) and synthetic biology (SB) and the need to contain them before it’s too late. Suleyman paints a picture of a future where AI revolutionizes various aspects of society, from healthcare to city planning, but also warns of the risks of genetic manipulation and the creation of deadly pathogens. Despite the promises and perils of these technologies, Suleyman doubts that nations will make the necessary efforts to contain them, leaving us vulnerable to the impending tech tsunami.
Overview
In this comprehensive article, we will explore Mustafa Suleyman’s book, “The Coming Wave,” which aims to warn readers about the potential threats posed by artificial intelligence (AI) and synthetic biology (SB). We will examine Suleyman’s arguments and discuss the promises, perils, risks, and challenges associated with these emerging technologies. Additionally, we will critique Suleyman’s proposed solutions and discuss the urgency of climate change compared to the containment of AI. Finally, we will conclude with a summary of the key points discussed in the article.
1. Introduction
“The Coming Wave” is a thought-provoking book written by Mustafa Suleyman, co-founder of DeepMind. In this book, Suleyman raises concerns about the rapid advancement of artificial intelligence and synthetic biology and how they pose significant threats to humanity. Suleyman argues that despite their potential benefits, these technologies need to be carefully contained to prevent catastrophe.
2. Background
2.1 George Kennan’s telegram
To understand the concept of containment, Suleyman draws parallels to George Kennan’s famous telegram in 1946. Kennan warned the US government about the expansionist nature of the Soviet Union and advocated for a strategy of containment. This strategy influenced American foreign policy for four decades. Suleyman compares the containment of the Soviet Union to the containment of AI and SB technologies.
2.2 Comparison to containment strategy
While Kennan’s containment strategy dealt with the forced expansion of communism, Suleyman highlights that the adoption of AI and SB technologies is voluntary. These technologies offer unprecedented wealth and promises to solve pressing global issues like climate change and disease. However, Suleyman cautions that the same technologies that hold such potential for good can also be used for destructive purposes.
2.3 AI and SB as voluntary adoptions
Suleyman emphasizes that unlike the Soviet Union’s expansionist policies, the adoption of AI and SB technologies is driven by economic incentives and the desire to overcome challenges. This distinction poses unique challenges as nations may be unwilling to contain these technologies due to their economic benefits.
3. Promises and Perils
3.1 AI revolution and its potential
Suleyman highlights the immense potential of the AI revolution. He predicts that AI will continue to advance and develop innovative applications such as discovering miracle drugs, diagnosing rare diseases, optimizing traffic, and designing sustainable cities. Suleyman envisions a future where AI enhances human capabilities and solves complex problems.
3.2 Genetic sequencing and DNA editing
Suleyman raises concerns about the accessibility of genetic sequencing and DNA editing technologies. As the cost of genetic sequencing decreases and the technology improves, anyone could potentially set up a genetics lab in their garage. Suleyman warns about the temptation to manipulate the human genome, which could have unforeseen consequences.
3.3 Human mutants and AI-SB collaboration
In addition to genetic manipulation, Suleyman explores the possibility of human mutants and the collaboration between AI and SB. He suggests that AI and SB could be exploited by malicious actors to create novel pathogens with devastating consequences. Suleyman presents scenarios where AI-designed and SB-engineered viruses could cause widespread fatalities.
4. Risks and Challenges
4.1 Lack of containment efforts by nations
Suleyman expresses doubts about nations’ willingness to actively contain AI and SB technologies. Given the economic benefits and dependency on these technologies, nations may be reluctant to implement stringent containment measures. Suleyman highlights the dilemma of needing to build potentially dangerous technologies to remain competitive while trying to prevent catastrophes.
4.2 Impact on institutions and society
Suleyman points out that the rapid advancement of AI and SB presents significant challenges for institutions and society. He raises concerns about the potential loss of jobs due to technological change, AI-generated cyber-attacks, and misinformation exacerbating political instability. Suleyman argues that our current institutions are ill-prepared to handle the forthcoming wave of technological advancements.
4.3 Possibility of AI winters
Drawing from the history of AI research, Suleyman acknowledges the possibility of AI winters. These periods of slowed progress and decreased funding could provide valuable time to adapt to the social changes brought about by AI. However, Suleyman overlooks this possibility in his arguments, emphasizing the urgent need for containment without considering potential pauses in progress.
5. Suleyman’s Proposal
5.1 Increase in R&D funds for safety research
Suleyman advocates for AI companies to allocate 20% of their research and development funds to safety research. This allocation would prioritize understanding and mitigating potential risks associated with AI technologies. However, Suleyman does not address the potential conflicts of interest that may arise from diverting funds away from bringing products to market.
5.2 Ban on AI in political ads
Suleyman suggests a ban on AI usage in political ads to prevent its potential misuse in manipulating public opinion. However, this proposal raises concerns about violating the first amendment to the US constitution, which protects the freedom of speech.
5.3 International anti-proliferation treaty
Suleyman proposes an international anti-proliferation treaty to address the risks associated with AI and SB technologies. While this proposal aims to regulate and contain the development and use of these technologies globally, Suleyman fails to provide insights into how such a treaty could be effectively enforced.
6. Critique of Suleyman’s Proposals
6.1 Feasibility and costs of proposals
Critics argue that Suleyman’s proposed solutions may not be feasible or cost-effective. The allocation of significant funds to safety research may hinder companies from rapidly bringing new AI technologies to the market. Additionally, implementing bans on AI usage in political ads may infringe upon individuals’ freedom of speech.
6.2 First Amendment violations
Suleyman’s proposal to ban AI in political ads raises concerns about potential violations of the first amendment. Critics argue that limiting AI usage in political ads may impede individuals’ right to express their views and engage in political discourse.
6.3 Enforceability of an international treaty
Suleyman’s proposal for an international anti-proliferation treaty lacks clarity regarding enforcement mechanisms. Critics question how such a treaty would ensure compliance from nations worldwide and whether effective enforcement could be achieved beyond national borders.
7. Climate Change vs AI Containment
7.1 Urgency of climate change
Suleyman acknowledges the urgent threat of climate change, which is already impacting the world. He emphasizes the need to address this pressing issue promptly and effectively.
7.2 Optimism about AI solving climate emergency
Interestingly, Suleyman expresses optimism about AI’s potential to address the climate emergency. He believes that AI can play a significant role in finding solutions to climate change. However, this optimism raises questions about why similar solutions couldn’t be applied to contain the risks associated with AI and SB technologies.
8. Conclusion
In conclusion, “The Coming Wave” by Mustafa Suleyman serves as a wake-up call to the potential risks posed by AI and SB technologies. Suleyman highlights the promises, perils, risks, and challenges associated with these emerging technologies. While he proposes solutions, critics raise concerns about their feasibility and the potential violations of individuals’ rights. Additionally, Suleyman’s optimism about AI’s potential in solving the climate emergency raises questions about why similar solutions couldn’t be applied to contain the risks posed by AI and SB technologies.
9. Additional Information
9.1 Publication details
“The Coming Wave” by Mustafa Suleyman, co-authored by Michael Bhaskar, is published by Bodley Head.
9.2 Author’s background
Mustafa Suleyman is an entrepreneur and AI researcher. He co-founded DeepMind in 2010, which was later acquired by Google in 2014.
Original News Article – The Coming Wave by Mustafa Suleyman review – a tech tsunami
Visit our Home page Here